I would not have predicted that Myanmar would so clearly emerge from the Association of South East Asian Nations summit in Singapore as the clear political winner. Despite international condemnation, sanctions, protests and scorn, the military dictatorship pulled off some of a coup, leaving the summit with its head high and its pockets full.
From EUX:
[Note: this story was written for The Bangkok Post, but it seems to have disappeared from Asian websites.]
The signing of the ASEAN charter, long anticipated as a moment of triumph, turned out to be a face-saving occasion with Myanmar the unexpected victor, analysts said.
“Myanmar got everything it wanted,” said Hiro Katsumata, an analyst at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. “It’s in a very comfortable position.”
Critics, who have long lamented the ineffectiveness of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) over four decades, acknowledged surprise that the body would cave in to such a degree after the bloody crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in September.
ASEAN’s kowtowing “wasn’t expected to go this far,” Katsumata said. “What it shows is the long policy of non-interference in each other’s affairs, the ASEAN way, will continue as usual.”
“This is a major victory for Myanmar,” he added.
I found this part particularly telling.
Complying with Myanmar’s objections, the ASEAN leaders late Monday called off a scheduled address by UN Special Envoy Ibrahim Gambari to the 10 member countries plus China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.
Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, who had arranged Gambari’s briefings, said Myanmar emphasized that Gambari, who visited the country four times, “should only report to the UN Security Council and not to ASEAN or the East Asia Summit.”
Specially when his report would have likely criticized the meeting’s crazy aunt in the attic.
“ASEAN has given the ruling junta carte blanche to do as they like,” said Debbie Stothard, with the Bangkok-based Alternative ASEAN Network on Burma.
“I’m deeply shocked,” she said. “ASEAN is committing suicide.”
Since the violent crackdown, the Burmese generals have failed to take meaningful action toward a process of democratic reform within the country and towards ensuring against future human rights, said the Asian Forum for Human Rights and Development.
“The final text of the charter is a major victory for Myanmar,” Katsumata said. As for ASEAN’s standing, “It doesn’t look good,” he added.
I’m not sure I can accept the suicide analogy. ASEAN is an economic body first and a political one a distant second. I expect the organization will act first in the coming weeks to ensure the flow of capital into the area and into the bank accounts of those involved.
Not ensuring that flow would be suicide.