
The Intertubes are thumping this morning with nuclear news out of Myanmar. The Washington Post reports on stacks of documents smuggled out of Myanmar and a U.S. Senator has postponed a diplomatic trip there because of the news. All of which gives me reason to revisit BOB: Myanmar’s Big Odd Boxes.
From Arms Control Wonk:
According to [Democratic Voice of Burma’s] sources, North Korea had nothing to do with setting up the two machine shops inside the Boxes. In fact, the Boxes seem to have been set up as general purpose machine shops and probably do not violate either the MTCR or even political sanctions imposed by Europe against the Junta (Europe”s sanctions against the Burmese Junta are considerably loser than those of the US and these exports were probably legal.
Now that there is evidence of the production of missile related components those companies will probably want to rethink their future exports.) However, this whole episode is an indication of how proliferation might be changing.
Consider how India got started on its road to preeminence in solid propellant missile technology: it licensed the technology from France, received detailed written know-how on production (and training of technicians in France), and received a list of production equipment, which India purchased elsewhere.
France was obviously capable of producing the needed equipment and chose-presumably for political reasons since the US was at the time trying to pressure other countries not to assist India”s rocket/missile program-not to sell them directly.
North Korea is also at least claiming the ability to produce advanced production machines and probably did sell a certain level of technology to Iran for missile production. However, North Korea must wonder if it will always be able to ship large pieces of equipment out of its country or even if its clients would settle for DPRK”s finest.
Instead, the spread of precision engineering worldwide- A. Q. Khan”s use of Malaysai”s SCOPE engineering is the clearest example of this-has opened up the possibility of proliferation networks more as consulting engineering firms rather than one-stop-shopping centers.
After all, without the testimony of DVB”s sources, it would be impossible to tell the difference between the Boxes set up by Westerners with the equipment list coming from a North Korean consultant for WMD/delivery production and the Boxes set up by Westerners as general purpose machining.
Fireworks! We’re building fireworks, err, satellites, yes! That’s the ticket! We’re launching weather satellites.