I think Matt Taibbi may be engaging in more that a little bit of hopeful thinking, but he was there in Manchester, New Hampshire, and I was not. I know Taibbi to be an insightful political observer and writer so I’ll hold my tongue for now and see what happens.
Here was the bit in Taibbi’s How Donald Trump Lost His Mojo for Rolling Stone that made me sit up.
The Manchester crowd of sunburned white guys in jean shorts and Celtics gear looks on, mute and mystified, as Trump moves from the Clinton Foundation rant into his new “theme”: Donald Trump as civil-rights champion!
The crowd whoops and hollers at first as Trump repeats the tried-and-true Republican trope that minorities are the victims of patronizing Democratic Party politics.
“Every policy Hillary Clinton supports is a policy that has failed and betrayed communities of color!” he begins, to cheers.
But the crowd grows more and more quiet as Trump lingers on the theme of black and Hispanic suffering.
“Nearly four in 10 African-American children live in poverty!” he says. “Fifty-eight percent of African-American youth are not working! More than 2,700 people have been shot in Chicago this year alone!”
And he just keeps going. There’s no punchline about the failure of personal responsibility in inner-city homes, no lecture about the breakdown of two-parent families, no tirades against “free stuff.” The crowd waits for a dog whistle that never blows. Instead, Trump just reads off one line after another about suffering in minority communities, almost like that’s the point or something.
Trump’s old stump speech was a blunt appeal to the frustrations of flyover America. It was a promise from a would-be strongman to clear out corrupt elites who, Trump said, had fattened themselves with donor cash as they shipped the regular workingman’s job abroad, or handed them to minorities climbing the walls.
In places like Manchester, a moonscape of closed mills and industrial ruins, his furious “throw the bums out” speeches used to bull’s-eye every audience.
But general-election Trump’s new speech is like a bizarre Mad Libs exercise in which someone mass-inserted references to African-Americans where the old white-misery applause lines used to be.
In the crowd, there’s slow clapping, and confusion. Finally, Trump wraps up by making a bold promise about the future under a Trump presidency.
“African-American citizens and Latino citizens,” he promises, “will have the time of their life!”
What is this, the musical climax to Dirty Dancing? Has a stranger civil-rights speech ever been delivered?
Shortly afterward, a mumbling and bewildered crowd files out of the Radisson ballroom where the event had predictably been held (the Manchester Radisson will someday be preserved as a monument to presidential-campaign tedium). Nobody complains or anything, but a sense of letdown hangs over the whole building.
What the hell just happened? What was that speech about? Who was it for? And who kidnapped the old Donald Trump?
Then Taibbi gets whiplash two days latter when, in The Unconquerable Trump: Seemingly imploding on the trail, Trump gains in a national poll. WTF, America? he ledes:
A stunning new CNN poll came out this week, showing Donald Trump in the lead against Hillary Clinton, 45-43 percent. Naturally, the release of this new survey coincided with my own Rolling Stone feature describing Trump in a “freefall,” having “lost his mojo.”
What can I say? Sometimes in journalism, you can’t help looking like a buffoon.
Mano Singham, writing in his own analysis of Taibbi’s take on Trump—The perils of covering Donald Trump—gave his take and predicted the seemingly impossible snap pivot:
There seem to be two standard rules of political reporting when it comes to US presidential elections. One is that the media has a vested interest in a close race because that generates more interest in the news and thus more readers and viewers. Hence there is always more breathless reporting generated by positive news and polls favoring the candidate who is behind and negative news about the one who is ahead. So in the current race, where Donald Trump is behind, any poll that shows him close to or tied with Hillary Clinton gets wide coverage. But statistically, when two candidates are within three or four points of each other, there will always be some polls that show them to be tied or the one who is behind on average to be even ahead slightly, and the number of polls that show this in this race are what one might predict purely on statistics.
The other is that analyses of the state of a campaign depend less upon objective factors about how it is being run and more upon whether the polls show a candidate doing well or failing. If one week we see polls that show the fortunes of a candidate declining, this spawns a whole series of news items about what is wrong with his campaign and its messaging, of fighting among advisors and staff, and the candidate sounding unsure. Then when the following week brings news of fortunes improving and the polls tightening, we get a fresh set of reports as to how the campaign is working smoothly, the message consistent, and the candidate sounding confident.
One can be forgiven for not noticing this pattern because in most election campaigns the fortunes do not fluctuate wildly so the narratives remain fairly stable. But one of the weird things about the current election campaign has been its mercurial nature, especially when it comes to Donald Trump. His fortunes go up and down almost on a daily basis. Hence any reports of the state of the Trump campaign require a careful look at the date stamps because otherwise one can easily get whiplash from the seemingly contradictory narratives.
So, what’s a writer to do? Taibbi blames Murphy’s Law.
The recent rebrand is a transparent effort to rehabilitate Trump’s image as a racist loon. Bannon’s play has been to wheel Trump out at campaign events shackled, Hannibal Lecter-style, to teleprompters. At each stop, the candidate tries to focus just long enough to read out a robotic script offering “minority outreach,” while also signaling a “softening” and a “pivot” on his chief issue, immigration.
In person, watching Lecter-Trump labor to push this “minority outreach” script up a hill for 45 minutes or so is embarrassing to the point of being physically uncomfortable.
His “What do you have to lose?” appeals to African-American voters recall the cringe-inducing “My heart is as black as yours” routine of infamous New York Democrat Mario Procaccino, whose 1969 mayoral run has been described as the most incompetent campaign in American history.
It seems impossible that Trump’s Dr. King act would convince an educated person of anything. Just try to picture the mind that would be persuaded by these speeches. It’s not an easy image to conjure.
But in perhaps the ultimate demonstration of Murphy’s Law, it seems to have worked.
I think Taibbi would have done better to ignore the polls as irrelevant and too close to be useful in any real sense.
Then, however, Taibbi pivots again and takes up a message I heard aired yesterday on my local PBS station: even if Trump looses big—gets about 40 percent of the popular vote—he’s still going to have more than 50 million voters casting their ballots for him. That’s a shit load of disaffected, conspiracy-believing Americans capable of rendering the United States a very unpleasant place to live, let along govern.
Taibbi concludes:
[I]n the face of plummeting poll numbers and mocking headlines, [Trump] panicked and emerged from a campaign reorganization tethered to an insane plan to walk all of this damage back by singing homilies to African-American despair in front of all-white crowds.
It should have been fatal. It wasn’t. Whether the CNN poll taken at the end of this incredible sequence of events that shows him in the lead is accurate or not, is irrelevant. The fact that it’s even close is an awesome indictment of us all.
It’s also a testament to Trump’s uncanny inability to fail even when he seems to be trying his hardest to do so. Not even the most exaggerated view of Hillary Clinton’s deficiencies as a candidate explains it. It feels a lot more like Idiocracy coming powerfully to life at exactly the wrong moment.
I still don’t think Trump really has a chance, but we’re sure headed toward a scary ending.
We are headed for a very scary ending, regardless of who wins in November. The question is simply, who is scarier?
I do disagree with Taibbi, although I sincerely hope I’m wrong: I think Trump will win in November, and win big, and then we’re going to have to figure out how we escape the maelstrom we’ve created.